HIGHLIGHTS
Approximately 840,000 people in southern Madagascar face acute food insecurity
U.S. ambassadors in Lesotho, Madagascar, Malawi, Mozambique, and Swaziland renew drought disaster declarations for FY 2017
In FY 2016, USAID provided nearly $278 million in assistance to drought-affected countries in Southern Africa
KEY DEVELOPMENTS
Southern Africa continues to experience the negative effects of El Niño-related drought conditions that began in 2015. Lesotho, Madagascar, Malawi, Mozambique, Swaziland, and Zimbabwe have declared national emergencies or alerts due to drought conditions and requested international assistance to mitigate the effects of drought on vulnerable populations. Critical needs within drought-affected communities include emergency food assistance, as well as livelihoods; nutrition; and water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) support.
In mid-October, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) revised its forecast models to indicate a heightened likelihood of La Niña conditions in late 2016. Forecasters predict that if La Niña develops, it will likely remain weak, and conditions may not persist for long. The USAID-funded Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) projects that most countries in the region will receive normal to above-normal rainfall during the 2016/2017 rainy season. FEWS NET expects the rainy season to begin in October/November in most Southern African countries, and agricultural activities will likely increase when the rains begin.
Food security is likely to deteriorate throughout Southern Africa during the October-to-March regional lean season, as vulnerable households may consume remaining food stocks prior to the April 2017 harvest, according to the Southern Africa Regional Inter-Agency Standing Committee. Countries of particular concern include Madagascar, where an estimated 840,000 people are experiencing Crisis—IPC 3—and Emergency—IPC 4— levels of food insecurity, and Zimbabwe, where 42 percent of the rural population is projected to require emergency assistance by January 2017.